Support modelling to establish domestic-level emission reduction commitments for the five main pollutants covered by the NEC Directive and the Gothenburg Protocol under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

ROADMAP PROGRESS

According to the 2025 GARI, preliminary Emission Reduction Commitments (ERCs) for the five main pollutants covered by the NEC Directive (SO₂, NOx, NH₃, NMVOC and PM2.5) have been prepared for all WB6 through initiatives including Environment Accession Project (ENVAP), IPA 2014 and EU4Green, using the Greenhouse Gas – Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. The commitments cover the period 2020–2029 with projections for 2030 and beyond, and are intended to achieve a 50% reduction in premature deaths attributable to air pollution between 2005 and 2030 across the region. The modelling confirms that this reduction is achievable for the WB6 collectively but not by each WB6 in isolation, underlining the importance of regional cooperation. Drawing on the TFIAM and CIAM/International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) policy brief, and in the context of the ongoing revision of the Gothenburg Protocol, the 2025 GARI notes that further modelling is now considered a lower priority, with emphasis placed on reviewing the policy brief's findings, fostering stakeholder dialogue, and using the preliminary Emission Reduction Commitments (ERCs) as the basis for formalising domestic-level emission reduction commitments.

Note: Action 36a of the first Green Agenda Action Plan (2021–2030) is retained in the Revised Action Plan (2025–2030) as Action 23. The revised action focuses on aligning with EU air quality standards and establishing emission-reduction commitments by developing domestic-level emission inventories and reporting systems.

Source: Based on domestic Environmental Protection Agencies, LRTAP Convention NFR tables, and Energy Community Secretariat (2024) Annual Implementation Report of the Acquis under the Treaty Establishing the Energy Community, November 2024. Data compiled in Regional Cooperation Council (RCC) (2024) GARI Annex.

Note: Data coverage for the Western Balkans Six is incomplete.